Predicting the trend of changes in the number of births and the sex ratio at birth in Iran: Time series analysis

The reduction in fertility and the number of births, and its macro-level consequences in Iran is a strategic problem that has recently attracted the attention of policymakers. The negative consequences of declining fertility, such as aging of the population, the decrease in size of the population, and the increase in the sex ratio at birth have caused a movement toward family-friendly programs aimed at increasing fertility. Predicting the consequences of a decision before its implementation based on knowledge of demographic processes such as the number of births and the sex ratio at birth can facilitate planning. To this end, in this paper a time series based modeling approach is utilized for to predict the trend of changes in the total number of births, girls, boys, and sex ratio at birth for the next 10 (2021-2031) years. The simulations are carried out in MATLAB software using the data from Statistical Centre of Iran. The results obtained from the simulations show a decrease in the number of births in the next ten years in Iran. Notably, by 1410 the total number of births is expected to decrease from 1116212 to 1,077,600, with the number of girls decreasing from 540254 to 525700 and the number of boys decreasing from 575958, to 551100. The trend representing the change in the sex ratio at birth is within the normal range. The results serve as a warning to policymakers to administer comprehensive, accurate and family-friendly support programs preventing a steep decline in the population size.