خط‌مشی‌گذاری جمعیّت در ایران (نتایجی از مطالعه مرور دامنه‌ای)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری سیاست گذاری عمومی

2 استاد، مدیریت دولتی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 گروه جمعیت شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران

4 استادیار، گروه مدیریت دولتی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

5 عضو هیات علمی دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه تهران

10.22059/ijsp.2023.355990.671111

چکیده

در ایران طی سال‌های گذشته مطالعات متعددی از جنبه‌های مختلف به موضوع خط ‌مشی‌های جمعیّتی پرداخته‌اند که با بررسی این مطالعات، خلأ مطالعه‌ای مروری که این پژوهش‌ها را بررسی نموده و تصویری روشن تر از وضعیت مطالعات خط‌مشی‌های جمعیّت ارائه کرده باشد مشهود است؛ عمده مقاله‌های مورد بررسی، اسنادی و توصیفی بوده‌اند و در برهه‌هایی (1389 و 1394) فراوانی بالاتری داشته‌اند که این پدیده را می‌توان ناشی از ترغیب پژوهشگران به دلیل عواملی اعم از خواست سیاسیون برای تغییر خط‌مشی جمعیّت و نیز ابلاغ سیاست‌های کلّی جمعیّت دانست. تضارب آرا در مورد رویکردهای خط‌مشی جمعیّت در ایران مشهود بوده و عمده مطالعات مورد بررسی نیز در بازه مورد نظر، موافق با خط‌مشی افزایش جمعیّت بوده‌اند. واکاوی چرایی این اختلاف دیدگاه‌ها، تحلیل گفتمان هریک ازاین رویکردها و انجام مرورهای نظام‌مند و فراتحلیل در‌خصوص خط‌مشی‌های جمعیّت و نیز طراحی مدل مطلوب خط‌مشی‌گذاری جمعیّت در ایران ‍‌‌را می‌توان به عنوان پیشنهادات مطالعات آتی ارائه نمود.

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